Dear friends,

As racist targeting of immigrants of color intensifies across the US, immigrant justice leaders are pushing back. In Ohio, the Haitian Bridge Alliance has filed criminal charges against Trump and JD Vance for their incendiary lies about Haitian immigrants living and working in Springfield. And NDLON (National Day Laborer Organizing Network) has just released an Instagram video debunking false narratives about recent migrant arrivals that promote hatred, and fracture solidarity between immigrant communities.

We join the call for pro-immigrant popular education with an article that helps us more accurately perceive the ‘statistics’ on the number of undocumented immigrants in the US. Then we look at the Republican-fueled nightmare in Springfield, with an eye for how the threat of expanding fascism—targeting immigrants and other historically marginalized people—has arrived.  

Newsletter highlights:

1. Confronting the Fear of Big Numbers: Counting Undocumented Immigrants
2. Fascism in Uniform Marches on Springfield

1. A simpler approach to undocumented population counts

Recent attention has focused on Ohio and the ridiculous social media lies amplified by Trump during the presidential debate. Republicans became hyper-obsessed about Haitians living in Ohio, who are legally present through the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program. In Ohio, almost 13,000 people have TPS approval, or just one-tenth of one percent of the state’s entire population. Yet to Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, this minuscule population represents a “terrible tragedy” for the people in his state.

This Ohio situation exemplifies the difficulty of accurately visualizing any large numbers describing immigrants. It is easy for politicians and the corporate media to utter worrisome-sounding numbers in the millions because such numbers have no practical meaning in the human mind.

Republicans have leveraged that impracticality to argue that the number of people here with, and without, ‘authorization’ is massively large and a threat. Although there are bipartisan differences around immigration issues, the Democrats have also embraced the perceived ‘threat’ of immigrants, as outlined in their recently proposed and failed border bill.

When discussing unauthorized immigrants, things get murkier due to difficult data. Since 1996 the federal government has published official estimates—these have been challenged as a dramatic undercount. There are statistics shared by organizations that conduct research about immigrants—these can conflict based on the organization’s bias. There are public data sets such as Syracuse University’s TRAC Data which allow anyone to delve into the data—these require an understanding of how to analyze numbers. All data sources take effort to find, read, and understand. The numbers spewed by Donald Trump, or Tucker Carlson, are easy, simplistic, and wrong. 

But, sometimes simplification can help us understand reality.

Instead of looking at large numbers, we can ask the following question: how many people are there in the US for each undocumented immigrant? State population data, Pew research on immigrants, and an infographic from a large data analyst company offers a simple answer: in the US there is just one undocumented immigrant for every 65 people. That may initially sound like lots of unauthorized people until we realize that 1 in 10 is just 10% of the population; 1 in 20 is only 5%; 1 in 30 is merely 3.3%. So 1 in 65 is a paltry 1.5% of the entire population. Republicans are telling 98.5% of the country to worry that this tiny group is a massive threat to the nation’s very being. As the regional and state populations differ, it is interesting to see how the answer to this question changes based on each location we look at.

• We can compare Ohio, where there are 91 people for each unauthorized individual (1.2%), with New York State which has 30 people per unauthorized individual (3.3%).
• Throughout the four states that border Mexico, we find there is one undocumented person for every 28 people. That is only 3.6% of the California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas populations combined.
• In the 16 states that have a land or water border with Canada, the number changes to 1 in 89 people. That is slightly more than 1% of all those state populations combined.
• Of the 14 states that border only with another US state, it averages to 1 in 77 people. Just 1.3%.
• For the 16 remaining states, with an ocean border, the numbers change to just 1 in 44. That is only 2.4% of those populations.

The simplified number also tells a story about states traditionally voting for a Republican or Democrat presidential candidate and the 7 swing states in the coming 2024 election. In the 25 typically Republican states we see 1 unauthorized person in 81 (1.2%); that becomes 1 in 40 for the 18 typically Democrat states (2.5%); and the 7 swing states come in at 1 undocumented immigrant out of 48 (2.1%).

If people in critical swing states can see these more straightforward numbers, they may come to understand that the lies Trump, Vance, and many others obsessively make about Americans being replaced and endangered by ‘illegal’ immigrants are not substantiated by the data. With that knowledge, they can vote with understanding, not unfounded fear.

2. Then they came for the Haitians…

Our August 17 newsletter argued that Donald Trump’s demand for mass deportation was on the cutting edge of a rising fascist movement that is beginning to move into the mainstream of US politics. Now the ongoing racist political attack on documented Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, makes it clear that this poison is spreading fast. 

Most of the basic ugly facts of the Springfield situation are well reported: The baldfaced lies by Trump and Vance alleging that Haitians are eating other residents’ pets, bomb threats that paralyzed the city, requests by Catholic bishops and government officials, including the Republican governor, for Trump and Vance to stop the damaging falsehoods and threats. We have learned from mainstream media that Trump has doubled down on his plan to deport Haitians in Springfield on Day One if he gets elected (despite the fact they have federally-registered TPS protections), promising that this would kick off a mass deportation campaign that, he warns, will be “bloody.”

One thing that has been less widely reported is the story of the Weber family—a story that happened on the sidelines of the national news. What happened to the Webers is frightening and damaging. But it also exemplifies how anti-immigrant hate, and especially hate towards Black migrants, quickly mutates beyond the issue of immigration, opening the door to an increase in fascist activism that targets all marginalized groups, regardless of immigration status. 

Chelsea Shirk Weber told the Dayton Jewish Observer that she, her husband, and their 4-year-old daughter went to a Jazz and Blues Fest in downtown Springfield on August 10. As they were leaving, they saw a squad of the neo-Nazi group Blood Tribe marching in formation, complete with red uniforms, swastika flags and automatic weapons. Hearing people yelling and other loud noises, the family moved swiftly to their car. But as the Webers tried to drive away in traffic, they and other motorists were surrounded by four Blood Tribe members who pointed rifles at their cars. There were no police visible nearby. “Go back to f-ing Africa,” the fascists yelled. Chelsea’s husband accelerated, running a red light to get away.

Blood Tribe claims credit for creating and spreading the rumor about Haitian migrants eating pets, starting their online campaign months ago. They consider it a victory that the Trump campaign (and 53% of Trump supporters) have adopted their lies. 

Photo Credit: Chelsea Shirk Weber

Weber took a photograph of some of the fascists—the image above. When she posted it on the Facebook pages of Springfield and of Clark County, there was a massive pile-on by right-wing commenters who either supported Blood Tribe or alleged that the photo was fake. Soon Weber’s post was taken down. Five minutes later, the City of Springfield posted a bland statement expressing “concern” about an outside hate group that had been in town. The mayor, Rob Rue, was quoted as saying that “Nothing happened, except they expressed their First Amendment rights. Our Police Division was aware and in control the entire time.”

Weber does not agree:

“”It was just completely disappointing that the government said, ‘Oh, they’re just exercising their First Amendment right and they did no harm.’ Tell that to my 4-year-old, who is completely traumatized. I’m 37 and I was scared s—less. How do you explain it to a 4-year-old?’ The Observer provided Police Chief Elliott with a transcript of Weber’s interview. Despite repeated attempts to reach out to Elliott for a follow-up interview, she declined to comment.” —Dayton Jewish Observer, 8/22/24

The Springfield events demonstrate how Blood Tribe and other other fascists like the Proud Boys and the KKK are using racist attacks on immigrants and calls for mass deportation to raise their public profile, recruit, and normalize their full program of hate against people of color, women, LGBT people, Jews and leftists. And the concentration camps the fascists hope to build for millions of undocumented people are intended for many other perceived enemies as well.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

• Donate to Springfield’s Haitian Community Help and Support Center.
• Check out Shane Burley’s research on current US fascism in Why We Fight.

In solidarity and with collective care,

Jackson Heights Immigrant Solidarity Network (JHISN)

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